Tesla is now up 71% from its January lows, but still down 56% from the highs the year before. That’s when you tend to lose people who don’t have a grasp of numbers. Fact is, other tech companies that were battered in the great sell off in 2022 are up strongly as well. Does this mean the Nasdaq is back? Maybe.
Last August, the index also rallied more than 20%. We all thought the good times were here again, before falling all the way back to whence we came and worse, making new lows. However, things are certainly different this time around. The macro environment has changed. Yes, don’t laugh. We all know how horrible things are out there in the real world, but the Fed might be done.
Forward earnings have also come down as companies guided lower, and that’s all priced in now. Moreover, the technicals look beautiful. Amazon just broke 100, Google is thinking about it, Nvidia is making higher lows, and Apple never really went down all that much but nevertheless just broke resistance. Even Meta looks alive on news of imminent orange infusion, and the index moved past 12000.
Of course, we are terribly overbought after rallying so hard since the start of the year. It is highly likely that whatever the prevailing larger trend, the markets may take a breather here and wait for the data to confirm what we think we know. Watch the yield curve for more clues, keep an eye on capital flows into other markets, but make no mistake about it, tech ain’t dead.