INSIGHTS

Maybe we shouldn’t be surprised that the US has arrested the head of a sovereign state, or that the Trump administration is openly flirting with the idea of invading Greenland, Colombia, Cuba, and perhaps even Mexico or Canada. What is startling, however, is not the geopolitics but the market response, or lack of one, with equities continuing to push on to fresh record highs. Europe and emerging markets have once again shone a little brighter than US stocks, in what is starti

The Budget is behind us, the Fed has cut interest rates, and the BOE is highly likely to follow suit on Thursday. Time to put this year to bed and focus on what 2026 may bring: The S&P 500 will top 7,000 but may also revisit 5,000, and possibly reach 8,000 too, because markets remain gloriously and stubbornly unpredictable. The Democrats will take both Houses in the midterms , because eventually, voters notice when they are worse off. Liverpool will win the Champions League

It was the week before St Nicholas when all through the house not a creature was stirring, not even a mouse, and the S&P 500 was within a whisker of its all-time high. Treasury markets are now pricing in a 90% chance of a Fed rate cut this month, and if Powell doesn’t trip over his own press conference, we may yet unwrap a tidy little year-end rally.   Meantime, the S&P 500 equal-weight index is lagging its heavily concentrated, prettier cousin by almost 9% this year. Semicon

My wife and I were walking our dog by the river on Sunday when I noticed a rubber dinghy beside us, puttering slowly in the same direction. At first, I wondered why someone would take a boat when you could walk faster, especially when he wasn’t carrying anything. Then my wife pointed out that he was using a cup to bail out the water leaking into his boat. By the time we reached our destination a couple of miles ahead, the dinghy had almost disappeared from view far behind us.

Quite a few serious “crash-o-meters” are flashing red right now. The Buffett Indicator is sitting at more than twice its historical average, the Shiller CAPE for the S&P 500 hovers around 39 versus a long-term median of 16, and FINRA margin balances hit a record $1.18 trillion in October. Even the so-called Hindenburg Omen decided to make an appearance in late October. Any one of these has been enough to send markets spiralling in the past. So, why haven’t we crashed? Well, i

Investor psychology is a funny thing. Just a few months ago, markets were floating on a cloud of AI euphoria, soft-landing optimism, and the reassurance of an accommodative central bank. Every headline was good news. Hot payrolls? Proof of economic strength. Weak payrolls? The Fed will cut. Higher inflation? Consumers are resilient. Lower inflation? The Fed will definitely cut.   In the last few weeks, however — and particularly on Fridays — sentiment has quietly shifted. It

The US Supreme Court continues to deliberate whether Trump legally used the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) to justify broad tariffs on imports from many countries. A decision is expected by early 2026, and the repercussions could be huge, both politically and economically. If the Court rules against Trump, it will mark one of the sharpest curbs on presidential power in decades. It could also force the Treasury to refund billions in duties collected, while

Nearly two-thirds of S&P 500 companies have now reported earnings, and 83% have beaten expectations, which is comfortably above the long-term average. Aggregate earnings growth for those that have reported stands near 8.5%, whilst the Magnificent Seven fared even better. Analysts now forecast full-year 2025 earnings growth of 17.1%. Is that enough to justify current valuations? There is little doubt that the likes of Nvidia, Meta, and the rest of their tech behemoth friends a

The UK has run a budget deficit every year since 2000. For the 2024/25 financial year, public sector net borrowing has reached £151.9 billion, significantly exceeding the Office for Budget Responsibility’s forecast of £137.3 billion. It is therefore not a question of whether taxes will rise in next month’s Budget, but by how much. Tax increases rarely stimulate economic growth unless the proceeds are deployed productively, for example, into infrastructure, research, education

Equity indices fell nearly 3% on Friday, again. The real drama, however, was in the risk markets. The VIX, the measure of volatility on the S&P 500 index, jumped almost 50%. That’s an extraordinary move, the highest level since April and a sign of real panic. Of course, by the end of the day, markets rallied, and everything was forgiven. Still, if history is any guide, market tops often coincide with an increase in volatility. So, is this yet another sign to take some money o

The Nasdaq dropped by 1000 points, the Nikkei lost almost 3000, and most other markets fell sharply on Friday. Particularly cryptocurrencies, which were down as much as 20% over the weekend after Trump reignited the tariff war with China. Alas, the long-awaited broad market selloff had seemingly finally arrived. Amidst all the gloom, it’s worth remembering that global equities are still up more than 30% from the lows in April. In that sense, this pullback looks more like a he

Gold hasn’t quite matched the post-crisis surge in equities since “liberation day” in April, but then again, it also never plunged by 25%...

There was a time when Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell could move markets with a single word. Investors hung onto every syllable,...

The FTSE All World index is up 15.14% this year. However, if you are a Sterling investor, that same index is only up 7.11%. That’s mainly...

The 25th Shanghai Cooperation Organization summit in Tianjin brought together countries representing over 4 billion people and more than...

As much as the markets cheered the CPI numbers last week on Wednesday, the core inflation rate wasn’t great, and the PPI numbers on...

There is now a universal tariff of 10% on every country wishing to export to the US.  More than 90 countries have rates of between...

We thought it was all over. Down more than 30% from the January highs, the Magnificent Seven had finally succumbed to gravity. Valuations...

We’ve just passed the halfway mark of the year, and it certainly hasn’t been boring. Inflation remains stubbornly high, geopolitical...

I remember when the Eurostoxx50 index first broke 5,000.  It was the beginning of the new millennium, telecom stocks were flying high,...