• Christian Armbruester

Ten Fearless Predictions



Why we all need a bit of fun.


As we have often said, our investment philosophy is not mired in the prediction game. That is because unlike in theoretical economics, we cannot hold everything else constant in the real world. Human behaviour is irrational, things are random, and how else could you explain that Liverpool would lose five games at home on the trot? Of course we have opinions, and we do like to entertain, so please take these fearless predictions for what they are: the crystal ball we all wish we had.


1. We are all going back to the office. No one ever wanted to go up a tall building in an elevator again after 9/11, yet we are all creatures of habit. Besides that, name me one person on the planet who wants to have another zoom meeting? We all need people, the personal interactions and that Monday morning gossip by the water cooler has been terribly a miss.  


2. Gold is going back to 1,400. For those of you that missed it, we had a bit of a crisis last year and we all needed a safe haven. Consequently, Gold went up to a record high of 2,100. Now the crisis seems to be abating. Once we are all sitting on a beach somewhere this summer, vaccinated and contemplating whether we are going to have the fresh cod or a bit of seabass for lunch, the Coronavirus will be forgotten. And Gold will drop to where it came from.  


3. Trump is one and done. Without taking any political side, it does seem that the man has got quite a lot on his plate, and he isn’t getting any younger. People can also only stay angry for so long and when things get better for many as we get the virus under more control, fewer will be inclined to storm the Capitol. 


4. Ethereum will reach 10,000 before Bitcoin gets to 100,000. Yes, those much maligned, institutionally scorned, and privately misunderstood crypto-currencies are still on the run. At this stage, more people are kicking themselves for not getting in than those that have fear of missing out, and it all means prices will be going higher. Come on, what else are you going to do with your money? It’s not like we are buying government bonds any time soon.


5. Liverpool won’t win the league again under Klopp. We saw it at Dortmund after they won the league twice before falling into an unstoppable spiral of defeats. It is happening again. Then it was the transfer policy, now it is injuries, and one thing is very clear: you can only play heavy metal football for so long before the boys get tired.


6. The EU will thrive after Brexit. Held back for decades by those islanders whose pronunciation of English no one can really understand, the people on the Continent are discovering that things work a lot easier when the computer doesn’t constantly say no. Less is more, and once the remaining countries become more integrated, it will be better than ever before.  


7. We won’t be driving cars for much longer. Let’s face it, humans are not very good at driving. How else would you explain 6 million car accidents in the US per year and 336 per day in the UK? Automated automobile travel is great. No more getting lost, no more worries about having a glass of wine with dinner and no more armed bank robberies. It really is a no brainer, and 1.35 million people won’t have to die anymore each year. 


8. We have seen peak-Tesla. The first mover advantage was great, but the rest of the industry has caught up fast, and already producing just as many electric cars. And no way is Tesla worth more than everyone else combined. 


9. Retail traders are here to stay. Statistically, we form habits after 28 days. Well, we have been locked down for more than a year and millions have discovered that Gamestop can go up by 1000% in a few days. You can’t get that fix from playing in the casino, and who wants to get dressed up in some weird hat and go to the races?

 

And finally, at number 10: Roger Federer will win Wimbledon. That is, if the tournament can go ahead in 2021, Rafael Nadal gets injured, and Novak Djokovic is too busy trying to catch the Coronavirus.

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