2024 Awards

Barring any last-minute surprises, 2024 will be a very good year for most investors. Few expected the S&P500 to be above 6000, but that’s another discussion. Before we make any more fearless predictions for next year however, let’s review that which gave us pause for thought in the last twelve months. The awards go to:

Best impression of what Tesla would like to be: Nvidia

Up another 180% or so this year, worth almost $3trillion and still growing by leaps and bounds. We may never know its equal, but that’s also what we once thought about Cisco. 

Worst impersonation of a real stock market: FTSE100

Down 250% versus the US markets in the last ten years, at least we are up 7% this year. However, when the Germans have gained 23%, it sure feels like someone should sing.  

Best imitation of a sleeping dog: Oil

There are tank battles in Europe and rockets fired in the Middle East, yet oil is right where it was at the start of this year. Either there is peace on earth and we just don’t know it, or buying some out-of-the-money call options is a no-brainer. 

Worst impersonation of a cryptocurrency: Ethereum

Sure, Bitcoin’s ugly cousin is up 66% this year, but Solana is up 100% and Ripple 278%. Maybe we should have just bought Dogecoin. That’s up 375% on the year.

Best illusion of a safe investment: Long-term Gilts

You don’t see something that is allegedly “risk-free” lose close to 15% that often but pity the poor souls who bought 30-year Gilts at the beginning of the year. 

Worst idea of the year: FIFA Club World Cup

Yes, it’s been decided and there will be yet another football tournament in the summer every four years. Hurray.

Wishing you all the very best for the holidays, and a healthy and prosperous new year!