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Why patterns are not meant to be broken.


The trend is your friend and we all know that. It simply means that until further notice, whatever has happened before, will continue to happen again. If the markets are going up, they will continue to go up and likewise, if the...

Think of buying equities for the long term as stepping onto an escalator. The name of the game is growth and we trust that things will go up in value thanks to father time. It is a tried and tested strategy and 97% of all wealth managers buy and hold equities as part o...

I once worked for a despot who exercised his power with excruciating cruelness. One particular episode is still very vivid in my mind when we were invited to an off-site meeting, with about 10 of the senior managers of the firm. It started off well enough with a nice b...

Genius and folly are oftentimes very closely linked together. Both imply going against convention and yet they are measured by entirely different outcomes. History is a brutal judge in how we remember those that did seemingly great or utterly stupid things. Ronald Wayn...

There really is something very exciting about letting the dice roll and betting on the outcome. The odds are known, the rules of the game are clear and if we get lucky, we win the whole lot. It is estimated that more than 1.6 billion people gamble during any given year...

For most of us, what goes on in the so called “middle and back office” of a bank or investment operation is a mystery that need not concern us. And rightfully so, buying or selling a financial security such as a stock, bond or commodity and having it appear in our brok...

When I was a student, I had the chance to visit a large bank and step onto a trading floor. It felt a bit like an oversized classroom with rows and rows of people, many screens, telephones, and of course the yelling. I thought it a horrible place to work and I pitied t...

As we have so often pointed out, investing is really simple if you take it for what it is. You are taking a bet, which you believe has a (high) chance of working out in your favour, on a random set of outcomes. It is why investing is so often compared to gambling. True...

The thing about investing is that there are always two sides to every trade, e.g. in order for one to buy something, another has to be willing to sell something at an agreed price. This creates an interesting dynamic, because the one buying thinks the price will go up,...

All else being equal, I think we can all agree that we would risk more on things when we have a higher degree of comfort that they will work out in our favour. The question is, how do we gain this comfort? Do we need to assign a probability to quantify exactly how comf...

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Profile piece: Christian Armbruester, CIO and founding principal, recently interviewed with Citywire about Blu Family Office

25/05/2018

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